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GAs markets fell during the bulk of the week but did see a little bit of a reprieve on Friday. Nonetheless, we are closing towards the bottom of the candle in it looks as if we are approaching the $2.80 level in the short term. I think that level could offer a significant amount of support, but if we were to break down below there, the market will almost certainly unwind down to the $2.60 level after that, and possibly even lower. At this point, it looks as if the market has been consolidating between the $3.00 level on the top, and the $2.60 level on the bottom. I think this continues to be the case, so it is a bit difficult to trade this market from the weekly timeframe, but certainly you must favor the downside over the next couple of weeks of nothing else.
Rallies are to be sold, there simply is far too much in the way of supply of natural gas around the world, especially in North America. I believe that the $3.00 level will continue to offer significant resistance to $3.10 level above, creating a “ceiling” in the market. Expect noisy trading, but that’s nothing new with the natural gas markets, and I think that the market participants will continue to favor the short-term outlook as per typical trading psychology is concerned when it comes to this market, essentially focusing on the next weeks weather report.
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