NATURAL GAS FORECAST ::
Energy prices traded on a diverse path last week; crude oil prices fell 6 percent, while natural gas prices rose by 9 percent on MCX. The massive price moves increased volatility and boosted volumes in natural gas contracts to an all-time high. Though these two energy alternatives have a positive long-term correlation, there have been periods in the past where the correlation between crude prices and natural gas prices has turned negative, like what we are witnessing right now.
Natural gas prices surged last week on forecast of colder-than-normal temperature boosting demand for heating. The higher demand would mean more withdrawals from existing inventory, which is already 16 percent below its five-year average and its lowest since 2005.
Gas production has hit a record high in US but the rapid rise in exports has consumed a large part of the additional gas production. US gas exports rose almost 80 percent in the last 5 years and are expected to further rise in the foreseeable future.
Going forward, at least in the short term, we remain positive on natural gas and prices are likely to strengthen on forecast of colder-than-normal temperatures, tight inventory levels, and higher exports. We believe MCX Natural Gas prices will remain supported at Rs 250-260 levels and trade higher towards Rs 330-350 level from the current price of Rs 290 per MMBTU. But any change in weather forecast will lead to higher volatility in prices in the near term.
REGARDS,
TECHNICAL DEPARTMENT
TRADE MAX INDIA
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