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The Euro went back and forth during the week again, as there are a plethora of headlights out there that have been moving the markets. The 1.15 level underneath has been important, and at this point it has not only shown support but also resistance in the past. In fact, I was resistance for a couple of years, which of course is something worth paying attention to. Overall though, when I look at the 1.15 level, it remains intact and I think that we will have to make some type of significant choice rather soon. A break down below the 1.15 level would be very negative, but at the same time I believe that it’s likely to attract buyers every time we get close to it. If we can bounce, then we could go as high as the 1.1850 level above which has offered a bit of resistance.
I believe that market participants will continue to be very skittish, and I think that this is a market that is probably very difficult to be involved in unless you have the ability to put on a position and forget about it. If we managed to break above the 1.1850 level, the market could probably go to the 1.25 level, but that obviously would be a call for later on in the year. The European simply must get things together on immigration and possibly even many other political fronts before the Euro can rally like that though. I see no breaking out of this short-term consolidation of the next couple of weeks.
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